[June 29, 2026] Moxie Minute

by Robert Lucido Jr

THE WEEKLY BRIEFING

MOXIE MINUTE

June 29, 2026

Rate Radar

Conv	6.52%	0.01▼
FHA	6.07%	0.00▲
VA	6.09%	0.00▲
Jumbo	6.75%	0.01▼
10YT	4.378%	0.006▲

Source: Moxie Mortgage | MND

Updated: 04:42 PM

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Market Metrics

Existing Home Sales

4.17 million

Median Home Price

$429,300

Months of Inventory

4.6 months

Home Value Appreciation

0.80%

Average Rent

$1,686, -1.5% YoY

Local Trends

30-Day Outlook

What to Watch

•July 10 CPI Report: A higher-than-expected inflation reading will likely push 30-year fixed mortgage rates back toward the 7.5% range.

•Builder Buy-Downs: With a 10.3-month supply of new homes, watch for national builders to offer aggressive 4.99% or 5.5% incentive rates to clear inventory.

•10-Year Treasury Yield: Monitor the 4.6% resistance level; a breakout above this mark would lead to immediate upward pressure on mortgage pricing.

Game Plan

•Core inflation remains stubborn at 3.4%, likely forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates through the summer months.

•A massive supply divergence has emerged where the new home market is oversupplied at 10.3 months while existing homes remain relatively tight.

•National home price growth has slowed to 0.8% annually, signaling a transition toward a buyer's market in high-inventory regions like the Sun Belt.

Agent Talk Track

"It seems like you're feeling stuck because the news says one thing and your budget says another. What happens to your plans if we wait for a better time and the prices don't actually go down like people hope? How can we look at the numbers together so you feel safe making a move today?"

Weekly Briefing

Top insights from the last 7 days

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis • June 25, 2026

Core PCE Inflation Rises to 3.4%, Dimming Hopes for Immediate Rate Relief

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Core PCE Price Index, rose to 3.4% in May, up from 3.3% in April. This unexpected stickiness in prices suggests that the central bank may delay any potential interest rate cuts until late 2026 or early 2027.

The Bottom Line:

Real estate agents must prepare clients for a 'higher for longer' interest rate environment, making monthly payment affordability the primary hurdle for the foreseeable future.

Read Full Analysis →

U.S. Census Bureau • June 24, 2026

New Home Sales Tumble 7.3% as Supply Hits 15-Year High

Sales of newly constructed single-family homes fell to an annual rate of 580,000 in May, while the inventory of unsold new homes surged to 10.3 months of supply. This represents the highest level of new home inventory since the 2009 housing crisis.

The Bottom Line:

This supply glut creates a massive opportunity for agents to negotiate heavy builder concessions, including price drops and permanent mortgage rate buy-downs for their buyers.

Read Full Analysis →

Fast Company • June 27, 2026

Zillow Downgrades Home Price Forecast for Over 400 Local Markets

Zillow has revised its home price outlook downward across 400 U.S. markets, specifically citing rising inventory levels in the South and West. The report highlights that regional price corrections are accelerating as buyer demand fails to keep pace with new listings.

The Bottom Line:

Agents in the Sun Belt must use this data to reset seller expectations, as the era of rapid price appreciation has officially paused in these previously hot markets.

Read Full Analysis →

Key Events Dashboard

July 3, 2026

Employment Situation Report

High

Market Significance:

Strong job growth could signal more inflation, while a cooling labor market would give the Fed more room to eventually lower rates.

July 10, 2026

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

High

Market Significance:

This is the most critical monthly data point for mortgage rates; any sign of cooling will lead to an immediate drop in bond yields.

July 29, 2026

FOMC Interest Rate Decision

High

Market Significance:

While a rate change is unlikely, the Fed's commentary on the recent PCE inflation data will set the market tone for the rest of the year.

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MOXIE MINUTE

Legal Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Mortgage rates and market data are subject to change without notice. All loan programs are subject to credit and property approval. This is not a commitment to lend.

Moxie Mortgage is a division of Nexa Lending, an Equal Housing Lender. NMLS: 1660690