[May 11, 2026] Moxie Minute

by Robert Lucido Jr

THE WEEKLY BRIEFING

MOXIE MINUTE

May 11, 2026

Rate Radar

Conv	6.42%	0.02▼
FHA	5.93%	0.02▼
VA	5.95%	0.01▼
Jumbo	6.59%	0.00▲
10YT	4.402%	0.038▲

Source: Moxie Mortgage | MND

Updated: 12:52 PM

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Market Metrics

Existing Home Sales

4.02 million

Median Home Price

$417,700

Months of Inventory

4.4 months

Home Value Appreciation

0.67%

Average Rent

$1,669, -1.5% YoY

Local Trends

30-Day Outlook

What to Watch

•Monitor the May 12 CPI inflation report; any surprise increase will likely keep mortgage rates pinned above the 6.3% range.

•Watch the 10-year Treasury yield, which is reacting to geopolitical tensions and oil prices hovering near $100 per barrel.

•Keep an eye on the narrowing 'lock-in effect' as current rates sit nearly 0.5% lower than the same period last year.

Game Plan

•Housing inventory is hitting a multi-year high of 4.4 months, giving buyers more leverage than they have had in years.

•National price growth has slowed significantly, with one-third of major U.S. cities now experiencing year-over-year price declines.

•Housing affordability is gradually improving as wage growth outpaces the modest 0.9% rise in median home prices.

Agent Talk Track

"It sounds like you're feeling stuck because the market is changing so fast. How am I supposed to help you get a great deal if we wait until every other buyer decides it's safe to come back? What would happen to your budget if prices start to go back up before you find a house?"

Weekly Briefing

Top insights from the last 7 days

National Association of REALTORS • May 11, 2026

NAR: Inventory Jumps to 4.4-Month Supply as April Sales Eke Out Gains

Existing-home sales rose slightly by 0.2% in April to a 4.02 million annual rate, while unsold inventory surged 5.8% to 1.47 million units. Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that while the stock market is at record highs, buyers remain cautious despite improving affordability.

The Bottom Line:

This surge in inventory to 4.4 months is a massive shift toward a balanced market, giving agents more leverage to negotiate for buyers who have been sidelined.

Read Full Analysis →

CBS News • May 1, 2026

Market Reset: Home Prices Fall in One-Third of Major U.S. Cities

A new report shows median sale prices dropped in 39 of the 129 largest U.S. cities during the first quarter of 2026. The declines are most prominent in former pandemic boomtowns across Florida, California, and the Southwest.

The Bottom Line:

Real estate professionals must use hyper-local data rather than national averages, as many markets are currently undergoing a significant price correction.

Read Full Analysis →

24/7 Wall St. • May 4, 2026

Political Pressure: 80% of Americans Support Banning Wall Street from Single-Family Housing

A new Harvard CAPS/Harris poll reveals overwhelming bipartisan support for restricting large institutional investors from buying single-family homes. This sentiment is driving new legislative proposals ahead of the upcoming midterm elections.

The Bottom Line:

If institutional demand is legislatively curtailed, agents could see a shift in market competition, potentially opening more inventory for first-time homebuyers.

Read Full Analysis →

Key Events Dashboard

May 12, 2026

Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report

High

Market Significance:

This is the primary measure of inflation; a higher-than-expected reading will likely cause an immediate spike in mortgage rates.

May 28, 2026

PCE Price Index

High

Market Significance:

As the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, this report will dictate the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year.

June 10, 2026

CPI Inflation Data

High

Market Significance:

This final inflation reading before the June FOMC meeting will be the deciding factor for the Fed's next interest rate move.

June 17, 2026

FOMC Interest Rate Decision

High

Market Significance:

The Federal Reserve will announce whether it is holding or cutting rates, which will set the tone for the summer housing market.

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Legal Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Mortgage rates and market data are subject to change without notice. All loan programs are subject to credit and property approval. This is not a commitment to lend.

Moxie Mortgage is a division of Nexa Lending, an Equal Housing Lender. NMLS: 1660690