[June 15, 2026] Moxie Minute

by Robert Lucido Jr

THE WEEKLY BRIEFING

MOXIE MINUTE

June 15, 2026

Rate Radar

Conv	6.56%	0.02▼
FHA	6.13%	0.01▼
VA	6.15%	0.01▼
Jumbo	6.83%	0.01▼
10YT	4.469%	0.016▼

Source: Moxie Mortgage | MND

Updated: 01:16 PM

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Market Metrics

Existing Home Sales

4.14 Million

Median Home Price

$407,600

Months of Inventory

3.5 Months

Home Value Appreciation

1.27%

Average Rent

$1,667, -1.7% YoY

Local Trends

30-Day Outlook

What to Watch

•Watch the upcoming PCE Price Index report for any signs of cooling inflation that could trigger a downward move in mortgage rates.

•Monitor weekly active listing data to see if the recent trend of increasing inventory begins to put downward pressure on home prices.

•Track the 10-year Treasury yield closely, as it remains the primary driver for 30-year fixed mortgage rates and market volatility.

Game Plan

•Persistent high mortgage rates are significantly cooling buyer demand, as evidenced by the sharp drop in pending home sales to near-record lows.

•Home prices remain at all-time highs due to a chronic shortage of inventory, which continues to favor sellers despite lower transaction volumes.

•The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on inflation suggests that meaningful mortgage rate relief is unlikely in the immediate future.

Agent Talk Track

"It seems like you're feeling a bit stuck because the market is so unpredictable right now. How would it feel to secure a home today and stop wondering where rates will go next? What is it about the current prices that makes you feel like now isn't the right time?"

Weekly Briefing

Top insights from the last 7 days

National Association of REALTORS® • May 30, 2024

Pending Home Sales Slump 7.7% in April to Lowest Level Since Pandemic

Pending home sales fell sharply in April, dropping 7.7% to an index of 72.3, the lowest reading since the early days of the pandemic. High mortgage rates and rising home prices are cited as the primary drivers behind the decline in contract signings.

The Bottom Line:

This is a leading indicator for future closings. Agents should expect a quieter summer and focus on helping sellers price competitively to attract the smaller pool of active buyers.

Read Full Analysis →

Federal Housing Finance Agency • May 28, 2024

FHFA House Price Index Shows 6.6% Annual Increase in Q1 2024

U.S. house prices rose 6.6% between Q1 2023 and Q1 2024, with a 1.1% increase in the first quarter of 2024 alone. Monthly data for March showed a modest 0.1% increase from February.

The Bottom Line:

Persistent price growth despite high rates confirms that the lack of inventory is keeping home values high. This data helps agents justify current pricing to buyers who are waiting for a market crash.

Read Full Analysis →

S&P Dow Jones Indices • May 28, 2024

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Hits New All-Time High in March

The National Home Price Index reported a 6.5% annual gain for March, reaching a new record high. San Diego, New York, and Cleveland led the nation with the highest year-over-year gains.

The Bottom Line:

Record-breaking prices in major metros highlight the resilience of the housing market. Agents can use this to show that real estate remains a strong long-term investment even in a high-rate environment.

Read Full Analysis →

Key Events Dashboard

June 21, 2024

NAR Existing Home Sales

High

Market Significance:

This report tracks the number of closed residential transactions and is a key indicator of overall housing market health and buyer demand.

June 27, 2024

GDP Q1 Final

Medium

Market Significance:

The final GDP reading provides a comprehensive look at economic growth, which influences the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates.

June 28, 2024

PCE Price Index

High

Market Significance:

This is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge; a higher-than-expected number could cause mortgage rates to rise as markets price in fewer rate cuts.

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MOXIE MINUTE

Legal Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Mortgage rates and market data are subject to change without notice. All loan programs are subject to credit and property approval. This is not a commitment to lend.

Moxie Mortgage is a division of Nexa Lending, an Equal Housing Lender. NMLS: 1660690