[June 22, 2026] Moxie Minute

by Moxie Mortgage

THE WEEKLY BRIEFING

MOXIE MINUTE

June 22, 2026

Rate Radar

Conv	6.66%	0.08▲
FHA	6.25%	0.10▲
VA	6.26%	0.09▲
Jumbo	6.85%	0.04▲
10YT	4.513%	0.062▲

Source: Moxie Mortgage | MND

Updated: 01:49 PM

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Market Metrics

Existing Home Sales

4.11 Million (SAAR)

Median Home Price

$429,300

Months of Inventory

3.7 Months

Home Value Appreciation

0.7% (S&P Case-Shiller)

Average Rent

$1,686, -1.5% YoY

Local Trends

30-Day Outlook

What to Watch

•Monitor the public appearances of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, as his hawkish tone is directly driving bond market volatility and mortgage pricing.

•Watch the impact of geopolitical stability on oil prices, as energy costs remain a primary driver of the 'sticky' inflation the Fed is currently fighting.

•Observe weekly purchase application volume; a sustained drop would signal that the recent acceptance of high rates has finally hit a ceiling for most buyers.

Game Plan

•The Federal Reserve's pivot to a hawkish stance under new leadership has reset market expectations, suggesting that higher interest rates are the new baseline for the foreseeable future.

•Housing demand remains surprisingly resilient, with a significant jump in pending sales indicating that buyers have accepted 6.5 percent mortgage rates as the new normal.

•A widening gap between record-high home prices and falling rents is creating a unique market where the cost of ownership continues to outpace the cost of leasing.

Agent Talk Track

"It seems like you're feeling a bit stuck because the news keeps changing every day. How would it feel if we found a home that fits your life right now instead of waiting for a perfect market that might never come? What is the biggest thing making you feel like now isn't the right time to move forward?"

Weekly Briefing

Top insights from the last 7 days

Bankrate • June 17, 2026

Fed Holds Rates Steady as New Chairman Signals Hawkish Shift

The Federal Reserve unanimously voted to keep the benchmark interest rate at 3.5-3.75 percent, but new Chairman Kevin Warsh struck a surprisingly aggressive tone. He warned that persistent inflation might require future rate hikes rather than the cuts many investors had been expecting.

The Bottom Line:

This shift in tone means mortgage rates are unlikely to drop significantly this summer, requiring agents to help clients plan for a 'higher-for-longer' environment.

Read Full Analysis →

National Association of REALTORS • June 17, 2026

Pending Home Sales Jump to Six-Month High Despite High Rates

Pending home sales surged 3.8 percent in May, far exceeding analyst expectations of a minor 0.8 percent gain. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that this 'late spring rush' indicates strong pent-up demand and consumer acceptance of current mortgage levels.

The Bottom Line:

Stronger demand means competition remains high even with elevated rates; agents should prepare buyers for potential multiple-offer situations in inventory-constrained markets.

Read Full Analysis →

Realtor.com • June 16, 2026

National Rents Fall for 34th Consecutive Month in May

The national median asking rent fell to $1,686 in May, a 1.5 percent decrease year-over-year. While rents are still 17 percent higher than pre-pandemic levels, the continued decline is providing some relief to households currently priced out of the purchase market.

The Bottom Line:

Falling rents may tempt some first-time buyers to continue leasing, making it critical for agents to emphasize the long-term wealth-building benefits of homeownership.

Read Full Analysis →

Key Events Dashboard

June 28, 2026

PCE Price Index Release

High

Market Significance:

This is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge; any reading higher than expected will likely cause mortgage rates to spike as markets price in a potential rate hike.

July 3, 2026

June Employment Situation Report

High

Market Significance:

Continued strength in the labor market gives the Fed more room to keep interest rates high to fight inflation, affecting long-term mortgage pricing.

July 9, 2026

June Existing Home Sales Report

Medium

Market Significance:

This report will confirm if the surge in May pending sales successfully translated into closed transactions, providing a clear picture of summer market momentum.

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MOXIE MINUTE

Legal Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Mortgage rates and market data are subject to change without notice. All loan programs are subject to credit and property approval. This is not a commitment to lend.

Moxie Mortgage is a division of Nexa Lending, an Equal Housing Lender. NMLS: 1660690