[May 18, 2026] Moxie Minute

by Robert Lucido Jr

THE WEEKLY BRIEFING

MOXIE MINUTE

May 18, 2026

Rate Radar

Conv	6.65%	0.00▲
FHA	6.18%	0.01▲
VA	6.19%	0.00▲
Jumbo	6.70%	0.01▲
10YT	4.595%	0.00▲

Source: Moxie Mortgage | MND

Updated: 12:54 PM

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Market Metrics

Existing Home Sales

4.02 Million

Median Home Price

$417,700

Months of Inventory

4.4 Months

Home Value Appreciation

0.7% YoY

Average Rent

$1,673, -1.7% YoY

Local Trends

30-Day Outlook

What to Watch

•Watch the June 10 CPI report closely; any sign that inflation is staying 'sticky' above 3.5% will likely keep mortgage rates anchored above 6.3%.

•Monitor global oil prices, as rising energy costs are currently the primary driver of inflation and are preventing a meaningful drop in bond yields.

•Keep an eye on the 4.5-month inventory threshold; if supply exceeds this level, expect builders and sellers to offer much larger rate buy-downs and price cuts.

Game Plan

•The housing market is entering a 'Great Normalization' where inventory is finally rising to pre-pandemic levels, reaching a 4.4-month supply in April 2026.

•Nominal home prices remain at record highs, but the pace of appreciation has slowed significantly to 0.7% as buyers hit an affordability ceiling.

•Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are keeping energy prices high, which is preventing inflation from cooling fast enough for the Fed to cut rates.

Agent Talk Track

"It seems like you are feeling a bit stuck because of the news about interest rates. How would it feel if we used the extra homes on the market right now to help you get a much better price than last year? What is it that makes you feel like waiting is the safest choice for your family?"

Weekly Briefing

Top insights from the last 7 days

National Association of Home Builders • May 18, 2026

Builder Confidence Edges Higher in May Despite Geopolitical Headwinds

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose three points to 37 in May, beating economist expectations. Despite the slight gain, builders remain cautious as high mortgage rates and rising energy costs from the Iran conflict dampen buyer traffic.

The Bottom Line:

This means builders are still hungry for deals and are likely to continue offering significant sales incentives, which agents can use as leverage for their buyers.

Read Full Analysis →

National Association of REALTORS® • May 11, 2026

Existing-Home Sales Rise Slightly as Inventory Hits 4.4-Month Supply

April existing-home sales increased 0.2% to an annual rate of 4.02 million units. Total housing inventory jumped 5.8% from the previous month, bringing the market closer to a balanced state than it has been in years.

The Bottom Line:

More inventory means less competition and fewer bidding wars, giving agents more room to negotiate repairs and closing cost credits for clients.

Read Full Analysis →

Realtor.com • May 13, 2026

April Rental Report: 33rd Consecutive Month of Declining Rents

National median asking rents fell 1.7% year-over-year in April to $1,673. This persistent decline is creating a 'savings gap' that allows renters to accumulate down payment funds faster even as home prices remain high.

The Bottom Line:

Agents should target long-term renters who are now seeing budget relief, as they may be the next wave of first-time homebuyers once rates stabilize.

Read Full Analysis →

Key Events Dashboard

May 26, 2026

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Medium

Market Significance:

This report will confirm if the cooling price trend seen in early 2026 is holding across the top 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas.

June 5, 2026

May Employment Situation Report

High

Market Significance:

A softening labor market is the key signal the Federal Reserve needs to see before they will consider lowering interest rates later this summer.

June 10, 2026

Consumer Price Index (CPI) and FOMC Decision

High

Market Significance:

This is a 'double-header' day where inflation data and the Fed's interest rate decision will likely cause major volatility in mortgage rates.

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MOXIE MINUTE

Legal Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Mortgage rates and market data are subject to change without notice. All loan programs are subject to credit and property approval. This is not a commitment to lend.

Moxie Mortgage is a division of Nexa Lending, an Equal Housing Lender. NMLS: 1660690