[September 8, 2026] Moxie Minute

by Robert Lucido Jr

THE WEEKLY BRIEFING

MOXIE MINUTE

September 8, 2026

Rate Radar

Conv	6.89%	0.01▲
FHA	6.44%	0.00▲
VA	6.46%	0.00▲
Jumbo	7.06%	0.01▲
10YT	4.79%	0.006▲

Source: Moxie Mortgage | MND

Updated: 10:37 AM

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Market Metrics

Existing Home Sales

4.06 million

Median Home Price

$434,100

Months of Inventory

4.6 months

Home Value Appreciation

1.53%

Average Rent

$1,695, -1.4% YoY

Local Trends

30-Day Outlook

What to Watch

•Monitor the September 10 CPI inflation report, as a hot reading could push mortgage rates toward the 7% threshold.

•Watch the September 15-16 FOMC meeting for signals on whether the Fed will maintain its pause or pivot toward a hike if labor data remains too strong.

•Track rising inventory levels in the Sun Belt, which are starting to shift negotiating power toward buyers as holding costs like insurance and taxes climb.

Game Plan

•Mortgage rates reaching 2026 highs have triggered a late-summer stall, causing pending sales to turn negative for the first time in eight months.

•A significant regional divergence is emerging, with the Midwest and Northeast seeing price gains while high-cost Sun Belt and Western markets face annual declines.

•Despite higher rates, a floor on home prices persists due to historically low inventory levels and a lock-in effect among current homeowners.

Agent Talk Track

"It seems like you're feeling a bit stuck because rates are higher than you hoped. How would you feel if we negotiated a credit from the seller to buy down your rate and lower that payment? What would happen if we wait and find ourselves competing with ten other buyers once rates finally drop?"

Weekly Briefing

Top insights from the last 7 days

Realtor.com • September 3, 2026

Mortgage Rates Surge to 2026 High of 6.71% Following Blowout Jobs Report

Mortgage rates reached their highest level of the year this week after a stronger-than-expected jobs report shifted market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The sudden jump has cooled buyer demand, leading to a noticeable stall in market activity heading into the fall.

The Bottom Line:

Real estate agents should prepare clients for higher borrowing costs and focus on rate buydown strategies to keep monthly payments manageable.

Read Full Analysis →

Realtor.com • September 2, 2026

Pending Home Sales Turn Negative in August for First Time in Eight Months

New data shows that pending home sales fell 0.2% year-over-year in August, snapping a long streak of growth as high costs sidelined buyers. At the same time, new listings rose 2.1%, reaching a four-year high and providing more options for those still in the market.

The Bottom Line:

This shift signals a transition to a more balanced market where buyers have increased negotiating power and more inventory to choose from.

Read Full Analysis →

S&P Dow Jones Indices • September 3, 2026

S&P Case-Shiller Reports Stark Regional Divergence as Western Home Prices Fall

The latest home price index shows a 1.5% national annual gain but masks a massive gap between regions; Chicago saw a 6.9% jump while Seattle and Texas markets posted declines. Rising insurance premiums and property taxes are cited as major factors cooling demand in previously hot Sun Belt metros.

The Bottom Line:

Agents in the West and South must manage seller expectations regarding pricing, while those in the Midwest can leverage continued strong appreciation in their marketing.

Read Full Analysis →

Key Events Dashboard

September 10, 2026

August Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report

High

Market Significance:

This is the primary measure of inflation; a higher-than-expected result will likely drive mortgage rates up immediately.

September 10, 2026

NAR August Existing Home Sales

Medium

Market Significance:

This report will confirm if the late-summer stall in sales activity is deepening or if the market is stabilizing.

September 15-16, 2026

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting

High

Market Significance:

The Fed's decision on interest rates and their commentary on the 2027 outlook will dictate the trajectory of mortgage rates for the rest of the year.

September 17, 2026

NAR August Pending Home Sales Index

Medium

Market Significance:

As a leading indicator, this will show how many buyers are actually signing contracts despite the recent surge in mortgage rates.

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MOXIE MINUTE

Legal Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Mortgage rates and market data are subject to change without notice. All loan programs are subject to credit and property approval. This is not a commitment to lend.

Moxie Mortgage is a division of Nexa Lending, an Equal Housing Lender. NMLS: 1660690