[August 31, 2026] Moxie Minute

by Robert Lucido Jr

THE WEEKLY BRIEFING

MOXIE MINUTE

August 31, 2026

Rate Radar

Conv	6.81%	0.06▲
FHA	6.37%	0.03▲
VA	6.37%	0.02▲
Jumbo	6.90%	0.02▲
10YT	4.762%	0.04▲

Source: Moxie Mortgage | MND

Updated: 12:14 PM

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Market Metrics

Existing Home Sales

4.06 Million

Median Home Price

$434,100

Months of Inventory

4.6 Months

Home Value Appreciation

1.5%

Average Rent

$1,667, -1.7% YoY

Local Trends

30-Day Outlook

What to Watch

•Watch the September 4th Jobs Report; a cooling labor market is the primary catalyst needed to drive the 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage rates lower.

•Monitor the 6% surge in new listings; if buyer demand continues to lag behind this supply growth, expect a wave of price cuts in late September.

•Keep an eye on the September 16-17 FOMC meeting; the Fed's updated 'dot plot' will dictate whether rates trend toward 6% or 7% by year-end.

Game Plan

•Housing inventory is finally reaching balanced levels, with a 4.6-month supply giving buyers the most leverage they have seen in years.

•Annual home price growth has slowed to 1.5%, signaling a 'soft landing' where values stabilize rather than experience a sharp correction.

•Persistent inflation is keeping mortgage rates 'sticky' in the mid-6% range, establishing a new market baseline for the foreseeable future.

Agent Talk Track

"It sounds like you're worried that buying now might be a mistake because rates are high. How would you feel if you waited for a lower rate, but then hundreds of other buyers came back and pushed the price of your dream home up by $50,000? What is the biggest thing stopping you from making a move today?"

Weekly Briefing

Top insights from the last 7 days

InvestmentNews • August 28, 2026

US Housing Market Flashes Mixed Signals: Supply Surges While Demand Weakens

New data reveals a significant shift as new listings climbed 6% year-over-year for the week ending August 24, while pending sales fell 3.1%. Active inventory has reached 1.5 million homes, its highest level since May, as mortgage purchase applications dropped another 5%.

The Bottom Line:

This widening gap between supply and demand means realtors must prepare sellers for longer days on market and more aggressive negotiations from buyers who now have more choices.

Read Full Analysis →

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • August 25, 2026

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.5% Year-Over-Year in June

The S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 1.5% annually in June, up slightly from 1.2% in May. However, after adjusting for 3.5% inflation, real home prices have actually declined for 13 consecutive months.

The Bottom Line:

Realtors can use this data to show hesitant buyers that 'real' home values are softening, providing a strategic entry point despite high nominal mortgage rates.

Read Full Analysis →

Freddie Mac / YCharts • August 27, 2026

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady at 6.66% as Market Awaits Fed Signal

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.66% this week, virtually unchanged from 6.65% the week prior. Rates have remained parked in the mid-6% range as the market waits for the Federal Reserve to decide on a potential September rate cut.

The Bottom Line:

Rate stability allows for more accurate pre-approvals, but LOs should advise clients that waiting for a major drop could result in facing higher home prices later.

Read Full Analysis →

Key Events Dashboard

September 4, 2026

August Employment Situation Report

High

Market Significance:

This report is the final major labor market data point before the Fed's next meeting and will heavily influence mortgage rate direction.

September 10, 2026

NAR August Existing-Home Sales

High

Market Significance:

This will confirm if the August inventory surge translated into higher sales volume or if the market is beginning to oversupply.

September 16-17, 2026

FOMC Interest Rate Decision

High

Market Significance:

The Federal Reserve's decision and future outlook will be the most critical factor for mortgage rates heading into the fourth quarter.

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MOXIE MINUTE

Legal Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Mortgage rates and market data are subject to change without notice. All loan programs are subject to credit and property approval. This is not a commitment to lend.

Moxie Mortgage is a division of Nexa Lending, an Equal Housing Lender. NMLS: 1660690