[August 17, 2026] Moxie Minute

by Moxie Mortgage

THE WEEKLY BRIEFING

MOXIE MINUTE

August 17, 2026

Rate Radar

Conv	6.73%	0.02▲
FHA	6.31%	0.02▲
VA	6.33%	0.02▲
Jumbo	6.87%	0.02▲
10YT	4.728%	0.032▲

Source: Moxie Mortgage | MND

Updated: 04:37 PM

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Market Metrics

Existing Home Sales

4.06 Million

Median Home Price

$434,100

Months of Inventory

4.6 Months

Home Value Appreciation

1.10% YoY

Average Rent

$1,695, -1.4% YoY

Local Trends

30-Day Outlook

What to Watch

•Monitor the Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting, as cooling labor data has increased the probability of a benchmark rate cut.

•Watch the 10-year Treasury yield for reactions to international geopolitical tensions, which have recently caused 'flight-to-safety' dips in mortgage pricing.

•Track the narrowing spread between mortgage rates and Treasury yields, which could provide additional relief to buyers even if the Fed remains cautious.

Game Plan

•Existing home sales have stabilized at a 4.06 million annual pace, suggesting the market has found a floor despite high rates.

•Inventory levels have reached 4.6 months of supply, moving the market closer to a balanced state not seen in several years.

•The affordability gap is narrowing as starter-home prices are beginning to fall faster than rental rates in major metropolitan areas.

Agent Talk Track

"It sounds like you are feeling a bit stuck because the market feels so different right now. What would happen if we found a home where the monthly payment fits your budget today, even if the news sounds scary? How would you feel about owning a home now while others are still waiting on the sidelines?"

Weekly Briefing

Top insights from the last 7 days

Forbes Advisor • August 17, 2026

Mortgage Rates Dive to Mid-6% Range as Labor Market Cools

Mortgage rates have trended downward following the Federal Reserve's decision to pause rate hikes and assess cooling economic data. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has now settled in the mid-6% range, the lowest level in several months.

The Bottom Line:

Lower rates provide a window for sidelined buyers to lock in more affordable monthly payments before the fall market. LOs should reach out to pre-approved clients who were priced out earlier this year.

Read Full Analysis →

National Association of REALTORS® • August 11, 2026

NAR Reports July Existing-Home Sales Stabilize Amid Rising Inventory

Existing-home sales saw a slight monthly dip of 1.7% but remain up 0.7% year-over-year at a 4.06 million annual pace. Unsold inventory sits at a 4.6-month supply, which is unchanged from last month but reflects a more balanced market environment.

The Bottom Line:

The stabilization of sales volume and rising inventory means buyers have more options and less competition than during the pandemic-era frenzy. Realtors can use this 'balanced' narrative to encourage hesitant sellers to list.

Read Full Analysis →

Realtor.com • August 17, 2026

National Rents Continue Three-Year Slide as Multifamily Supply Peaks

Median national rents fell to $1,695 in July, marking the 35th consecutive month of year-over-year declines. Increased apartment construction has given renters more leverage, though the gap between renting and buying a starter home is beginning to close in some markets.

The Bottom Line:

While renting is currently cheaper than buying in most metros, the continued decline in home prices in certain areas is making homeownership more competitive. Agents should target long-term renters with data on narrowing monthly cost differences.

Read Full Analysis →

Key Events Dashboard

August 25, 2026

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Medium

Market Significance:

This report will provide the most accurate look at home price trends from the early summer, confirming if appreciation is continuing to level off.

September 4, 2026

August Employment Situation Report

High

Market Significance:

Labor market strength is the primary driver of Fed policy; a weaker-than-expected report could trigger a significant drop in mortgage rates.

September 11, 2026

Consumer Price Index (CPI) Release

High

Market Significance:

Inflation data will dictate whether the Fed proceeds with a rate cut in mid-September, directly affecting mortgage back-end pricing.

September 16, 2026

FOMC Interest Rate Decision

High

Market Significance:

The market is pricing in a potential pivot; any change to the federal funds rate will immediately impact consumer confidence and borrowing costs.

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MOXIE MINUTE

Legal Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Mortgage rates and market data are subject to change without notice. All loan programs are subject to credit and property approval. This is not a commitment to lend.

Moxie Mortgage is a division of Nexa Lending, an Equal Housing Lender. NMLS: 1660690