[January 26, 2026] 2026 Market Forecast: Rates, Inflation, Home Sal...

[January 26, 2026] 2026 Market Forecast: Rates, Inflation, Home Sales and More

by Moxie Mortgage

͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌ ͏ ‌

MOXIE MARKET UPDATE January 26, 2026

2026 Market Forecast: Rates, Inflation, Home Sales and More

Interest Rates Fall to 3 Year Lows, Rebound in Late January

January opened the year with renewed volatility in the mortgage market, as investors recalibrated expectations around inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and economic growth. After declining late in December on hopes of additional Fed easing in 2026, rates ticked higher mid-month, as economic data challenged the likelihood of rate cuts. As a result, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate remains elevated but range-bound.

🏡 RSVP — Moxie Market Forecast Webinar

📉 Inflation: No Sharp Increase, Still Above Target

Recent data release show U.S. consumer prices remained steady with annual inflation near 2.7% year-over-year. These readings undershot market fears of a sharp uptick, but remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Shelter— which carries significant weighting in both CPI and PCE— remains a notable contributor, underscoring critique of how government data methodologies lag private sector real-time data sources.

🔍 Real Estate Brokerage Metrics

Inventory: Active listings closed the year at approximately 1.1 million, up from 900,000 the previous year; however still 6% lower than 2019 levels.

Housing Starts: Down to 1.2m in 2025, in line with Homebuilder Sentiment Index with ended 2025 negative, as builders continue to grapple with rising construction costs and many buyers remaining on the sidelines due to affordability concerns.

Existing Home Sales: According to the National Association of Realtors, existing-home sales increased 4.1% in September.

Time on Market: The median days on market nationwide ended the year at 84 days (up 9.1% year over year).

Home Prices: Home price growth has slowed dramatically. Nationally, home‐price growth in November was just 1.4%. The median list price was $419,950 (up 0.2% year over year) with 39% of active listings reporting a price cut..

🔮 Looking Ahead

Fed Policy Outlook

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s term is set to end in May, and is widely expected to be replaced by a more dovish successor. This shift would increase the likelihood of additional rate cuts, as it would result in five dovish votes among the Fed’s twelve voting members in 2026. Moxie expects at least two additional rate cuts of 25 bps in 2026.

Mortgage rates reached a national low of approximately 6.1%, but ultimately finished the year closer to 6.2%.

Based on the factors outlined in our full forecast on January 28, Moxie projects—optimistically— that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage could decline to approximately 5.7% in 2026.

Moxie also expects a shift towards existing home sales of roughly 6% in 2026, with new home sales declining.

WHAT WOULD YOU LIKE TO

HEAR MORE ABOUT?

Email hello@moxiemortgage.com