[September 21, 2026] Moxie Minute

by Robert Lucido Jr

THE WEEKLY BRIEFING

MOXIE MINUTE

September 21, 2026

Rate Radar

Conv	7.17%	0.02▼
FHA	6.80%	0.01▼
VA	6.82%	0.01▼
Jumbo	7.35%	0.00▲
10YT	4.976%	0.013▲

Source: Moxie Mortgage | MND

Updated: 04:22 PM

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Market Metrics

Existing Home Sales

3.98 Million

Median Home Price

$429,100

Months of Inventory

4.9 Months

Home Value Appreciation

1.27%

Average Rent

$1,667, -1.7% YoY

Local Trends

30-Day Outlook

What to Watch

•10-Year Treasury Yield Resistance: Watch for movements in the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield around the 4.90% to 5.00% range, as any sustained breakout higher will immediately push conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rates past 7.25%.

•PCE and CPI Inflation Releases: Closely follow late-September and mid-October inflation prints; higher-than-expected core readings will prolong restrictive Federal Reserve policy and keep mortgage spreads elevated.

•Inventory Absorption and Concession Trends: Monitor the absorption pace of the 4.9-month inventory supply through October, as accumulating active listings expand buyer opportunities for 2-1 interest rate buydowns and closing cost credits.

Game Plan

•Mortgage rates hovering near 7.0% continue to restrict homebuyer purchasing power, holding existing-home sales near cyclical lows of 3.98 million.

•National housing inventory has climbed to 4.9 months of unsold supply, tilting negotiation dynamics toward buyers and restraining annual home value appreciation to a modest 1.27%.

•High purchase borrowing costs continue to channel household formation toward the rental sector, supporting median rents at $1,667 while builders ease starts to manage carrying costs.

Agent Talk Track

"It sounds like you are feeling nervous about buying when interest rates feel high and home prices are not falling. How would you feel about taking advantage of the extra houses sitting on the market right now to get the seller to pay for your lower rate? What happens if you decide to wait for lower rates, only to see a flood of competing buyers push prices out of reach again?"

Weekly Briefing

Top insights from the last 7 days

National Association of REALTORS® • September 17, 2026

NAR Pending Home Sales Report Shows 0.3% Increase in August

Pending home sales edged up 0.3% month-over-month in August 2026, though contract signings remained down 4.7% compared to the previous year. Regional performance showed pronounced divergence, with monthly contract gains in the South and West offsetting declines across the Northeast and Midwest. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun highlighted that while solid job and wage growth support baseline demand, mortgage rates near 7% keep aggregate activity roughly 30% below pre-pandemic levels.

The Bottom Line:

This indicates buyers are still transacting when terms are right, but deals require patient negotiation; agents must counsel sellers to price conservatively rather than chasing aspirational values.

Read Full Analysis →

Zillow Research • September 18, 2026

Rents up, Existing Home Sales Down, The Housing Recovery is Back on Pause for the Remainder of 2026

Zillow released its September market forecast projecting existing home sales to decline 3.5% year-over-year in Q4 2026 under the weight of higher mortgage rates. For-sale inventory continues to accumulate, expanding 10.1% year-over-year as homes linger on the market. Concurrently, multifamily rent growth has accelerated toward 2.1% annually as priced-out buyers remain in rental units.

The Bottom Line:

Loan officers and agents can emphasize to hesitant buyers that rising rental costs erode wealth accumulation, while expanding housing inventory offers rare leverage for builder and seller rate concessions.

Read Full Analysis →

Freddie Mac • September 17, 2026

Mortgage Rates Average 6.95% in Freddie Mac Survey

Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage jumped 19 basis points to average 6.95% for the week ending September 17, 2026. This reading marks a 20-month high and sits 69 basis points above the 6.26% recorded at the same time last year. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage similarly increased to 6.26%, up from 6.09% the previous week.

The Bottom Line:

With borrowing costs hovering just beneath the psychological 7% threshold, loan officers must proactively structure temporary and permanent buydown strategies to protect buyer purchasing power.

Read Full Analysis →

Key Events Dashboard

September 25, 2026

Bureau of Economic Analysis PCE Price Index (August 2026)

High

Market Significance:

As the Federal Reserve's primary inflation metric, this reading will directly steer bond yields and dictate near-term mortgage rate direction.

October 2, 2026

BLS Employment Situation Report (September 2026)

High

Market Significance:

Nonfarm payroll gains and wage growth data reveal the strength of consumer purchasing capacity and drive benchmark Treasury yields.

October 13, 2026

NAR Existing-Home Sales Report (September 2026)

Medium

Market Significance:

Tracks closed sales pace, national median pricing, and inventory changes, showing how higher September mortgage rates impacted completed transactions.

October 15, 2026

BLS Consumer Price Index (September 2026)

High

Market Significance:

Headline and Core CPI numbers drive expectations for upcoming monetary policy decisions and influence secondary mortgage market pricing.

October 20, 2026

NAR Pending Home Sales Index (September 2026)

Medium

Market Significance:

Serves as the leading barometer for forward residential transaction volume entering the fourth quarter of 2026.

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Legal Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Mortgage rates and market data are subject to change without notice. All loan programs are subject to credit and property approval. This is not a commitment to lend.

Moxie Mortgage is a division of Nexa Lending, an Equal Housing Lender. NMLS: 1660690