[May 26, 2026] Moxie Minute

by Robert Lucido Jr

THE WEEKLY BRIEFING

MOXIE MINUTE

May 26, 2026

Rate Radar

Conv	6.61%	0.04▼
FHA	6.14%	0.04▼
VA	6.16%	0.04▼
Jumbo	6.75%	0.02▼
10YT	4.504%	0.068▼

Source: Moxie Mortgage | MND

Updated: 01:15 PM

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Market Metrics

Existing Home Sales

4.02 Million

Median Home Price

$417,700

Months of Inventory

4.4 Months

Home Value Appreciation

0.7% (S&P Case-Shiller 1 yr return)

Average Rent

$1,673, -1.7% YoY

Local Trends

30-Day Outlook

What to Watch

•Watch the PCE Price Index release on May 29; any inflation surprise will likely push mortgage rates back toward the 7% threshold.

•Monitor the spread between 10-year Treasury yields and mortgage rates, which remains historically wide due to ongoing secondary market volatility.

•Track the June 10 FOMC meeting for signals on whether the Fed will extend its 'pause' or consider hikes to combat persistent service-sector inflation.

Game Plan

•National home price growth has officially fallen below the rate of inflation, meaning housing is losing value in real terms for the first time in years.

•Mortgage rates are now projected to remain near 6.3% through the end of 2026, solidifying a 'higher-for-longer' environment for the foreseeable future.

•Housing inventory has climbed to a 4.4-month supply, the highest level since the pandemic, gradually shifting leverage back toward patient buyers.

Agent Talk Track

"It sounds like you feel stuck because house prices are moving slowly while interest rates stay high. How would your life change if you found a home now instead of paying rent to a landlord who is finally lowering prices? What makes waiting feel like the right choice for you today?"

Weekly Briefing

Top insights from the last 7 days

Mortgage Professional America • May 26, 2026

Case-Shiller: US Home Price Growth Falls Below Inflation for First Time in Years

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index released today shows national home price growth slowed to just 0.7% year-over-year in March. With inflation running at 3.3%, homeowners are effectively seeing the real value of their properties decline as the market hits a standstill.

The Bottom Line:

Agents must reset seller expectations immediately; the era of automatic equity gains is pausing, making realistic pricing the only way to move inventory.

Read Full Analysis →

Florida Realtors • May 20, 2026

Fannie Mae Lowers 2026 Home Sales Forecast as Rates Expected to Stick at 6.3%

Fannie Mae's latest economic outlook predicts mortgage rates will remain elevated near 6.3% throughout 2026, a higher path than previously expected. The report lowered expectations for total home sales growth as the 'lock-in effect' continues to keep many move-up buyers on the sidelines.

The Bottom Line:

LOs and Realtors should prepare for a lower-volume environment where business growth depends on capturing market share rather than relying on a market rebound.

Read Full Analysis →

Guaranteed Rate • May 19, 2026

April Pending Home Sales Show Cautious Optimism with 1.4% Monthly Increase

Pending home sales rose 1.4% in April compared to March, outperforming expectations despite volatile mortgage rates. Year-over-year, contract signings are up 3.2%, suggesting that buyers are becoming more comfortable transacting in the current rate environment.

The Bottom Line:

This indicates a resilient floor for demand; even with high rates, serious buyers are moving forward, creating opportunities for agents who focus on active shoppers.

Read Full Analysis →

Key Events Dashboard

May 29, 2026

PCE Price Index

High

Market Significance:

This is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric and will dictate whether mortgage rates have any room to ease in June.

June 5, 2026

May Employment Report

High

Market Significance:

Strong job and wage growth could signal a 'no-landing' economy, which would keep upward pressure on long-term bond yields and mortgage rates.

June 10, 2026

FOMC Interest Rate Decision

High

Market Significance:

The Fed's 'Dot Plot' and post-meeting commentary will reveal their planned path for interest rates through the remainder of the year.

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MOXIE MINUTE

Legal Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Mortgage rates and market data are subject to change without notice. All loan programs are subject to credit and property approval. This is not a commitment to lend.

Moxie Mortgage is a division of Nexa Lending, an Equal Housing Lender. NMLS: 1660690